4/15/11-5/6/11

The last couple of weeks have centered on mapping potential candidates on a 2 dimensional social and fiscal conservatism space. Thanks to Jaeyun's efforts, a graph was presented at the meeting and was the focal point of discussion. The data for the graph are derived from a poll of Republican strategists who were asked to rank their top 5 choices, with Romney and Pawlenty garnering the most votes. Some worried that it may be prudent to use polling results instead, because the data produce a graph that seems to distort the size of Romney's lead. However, there aren't any current polls that list all of the potential candidates so using that method would mean leaving candidates such as Huntsman and Bachmann out. So the graph is a work in progress, but provides a useful visual aid for understanding how the candidates compare ideologically.

The size and location of each candidate's circle is determined by the number of votes they received in the straw poll, and by how group members perceive their ideological placement on both fiscal and social conservatism. The graph shows Romney and Huckabee alone on the two left quadrants because both candidates are more moderate than their counterparts on fiscal policy and Romney is alone as the only moderate on social and fiscal issues. That the rest of the candidates are clustered together in the right hand side quadrants led several in the group to comment that they may be well-positioned because the clustered candidates will largely be fighting over the same voters.

The conversation then turned to the death of Bin Laden, which some group members see as a major coupe for the President that can be useful in his reelection campaign, provided the Democrats are strategic and develop smart ads that remind voters of it. If nothing else, Obama's success neutralizes any "soft on terrorism" attack ads the GOP may have otherwise run and goes a long way towards buffering up both his foreign policy credentials, and the way the public views him as Commander and Chief. Others feel that Afghanistan still poses a major problem for Obama.

The group will not be meeting next week, but will resume the following week at the regular time and place (3:00pm Friday Baldwin 326). Now that the semester is finished we hope that attendance will grow. See you there!