10/20/11 Meeting

The meeting opened with a discussion of the latest polling from RealClearPolitics.com. A poll from Iowa showed Cain with a modest lead over Romney with 26% to Romney’s 22%. The latest polling from NH reflects Romney’s current surge with the establishment and more moderate wing of the party with Romney at 40% and Cain at 18%. The SC poll shows that Cain leads Romney by 9% with 31% to Romney’s 22%. Finally, Florida’s poll shows Romney and Cain in a virtual tie with Romney at 31% and Cain at 29%.

Paul provided an interesting update regarding the primary schedule by sharing with the group recent developments of counties in South Carolina refusing to stage a primary due to budgetary concerns. The state is in the process of challenging this in court. Paul opined that the state’s Republican Party would likely receive substantial assistance from the national GOP to stage a party-sponsored primary rather than see the important SC primary canceled.

The rest of the meeting focused on the (at the time) latest debate in Viva Las Vegas. Unfortunately for Romney, what happened in Vegas definitely didn’t stay in Vegas as the airwaves replayed Perry’s and his chest-pointing “fight” over immigration and Perry’s charge that Romney used illegal immigrants as landscapers. But by and large, the debate focused on Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan.  The debate opening with each candidate ripping it to shreds leaving Cain affable but flustered as he tried gamely to defend his plan using an apples and oranges analogy that reminded viewers of Perry’s poorly executed “flip-flopper” attacks on Romney in the previous debate. The criticisms were buoyed by a recent analysis from The Heritage Foundation (among other groups) that found Cain’s original plan (he has since been trying to modify it) would result in a net tax increase for 86% of all Americans: making it dead on arrival to the rest of the field as well as the congressional Republicans.  

Although this developed after Thursday’s meeting, Cain has also come under fire from the other candidates for comments he made in an interview regarding the government’s proper role on the abortion issue. Cain committed the cardinal sin of trying to stay consistent with conservative orthodoxy on limited government by taking a quasi-pro choice position on abortion-leading some to speculate that he has committed political suicide, particularly in Iowa. The base of the Republican Party has not often embraced candidates with moderate stances on abortion-particularly at the presidential primary level. Although they begrudgingly got behind John McCain in 2008 (his efforts to appease them by debating Obama with Pastor Rick Warren seemed to help somewhat) the primary is not a good time to wax philosophical about limited government in private matters, although it was probably well-received by Ron Paul supporters.  As the polling discussed at the beginning of this post was released before this story broke and before the critiques of the 9-9-9 plan were widely covered, it remains to be seen whether Cain will still be the front runner in Iowa by the time the next major debates are held on November 9^th and 12^th.

That’s what you missed-hope to see you next Thursday in room 302 of Baldwin Hall at 2:15pm.