4/11/2012

Campaign Discussion Group                             4-11-2010

With Santorum out of the race, Romney is the presumptive nominee, although he still has to deal with Newt Gingrich. Gingrich has transformed from a viable, office-seeking candidate (after winning South Carolina) to an advocacy candidate, promoting an anti-Obama agenda and lower gas prices.
Santorum likely exited the race for fear of losing his home state to Romney, which was becoming more likely based on polling data and the fact that Romney’s campaign was gearing up for a media “carpet bombing” of the state next week. There has been talk of Santorum possibly returning to his home state to reclaim his prior Senate seat.

Barbara Norrander’s 33 percent Delegate Margin model seems to have been spot on in predicting Santorum’s exit, with Romney now more than 400 delegates ahead. We didn’t, however, get far enough to test her 36 percent Gain-Deficit Ratio model.
It was suggested that Santorum dropping out in such a subtle manner did not help Romney in establishing himself as the presumptive nominee. It would be most beneficial to Romney if Gingrich drops out after a large loss, making it a big event and signaling to voters that Romney is the Republicans choice.

There was general consensus that the campaign is now in “general election” mode.
Potential major themes of the election were discussed:
Democrats will want to convey the message that 1) things are getting better, you shouldn’t change horses in the middle of the race, 2) General Motors is Alive, Bin Laden is Dead (emphasizing Obama’s successful economic and foreign policies), and 3) that Romney is a flip-flopper.
Republicans will want to emphasize that 1) things are bad, and a change should be made, 2) the deficit, debt, and spending are out of control, and 3) that Romney is pro-Israel (a possible way to cope with Obama’s advantage on foreign policy). It was also noted that Romney is advantaged by his “presidential look” and that his VP choice is paramount and will potentially shape debate.
It has been suggested that Obama might accuse Romney of being an extreme conservative, forcing him to identify himself as a moderate or conservative, at which point the left will attack him as a flip-flopper no matter which choice he makes. Romney has also supported the Ryan budget over the past two years, giving the Obama campaign plenty of ammunition against him. Obama can pick out specific programs that the Ryan budget plans to cut, which will turn those benefactors against Republicans.

Romney, on the other hand, would benefit from the “look at Europe” argument, pointing out the problems that Europe is having as a result of its social programs and that that’s where Obama is taking America. Obama could say that the Ryan budget’s proposal to cut things like Medicare/Medicaid could cause domestic unrest in the U.S., similar to what has been seen recently in countries like Greece.

Emphasis was given to the idea that during the primary Romney was the “safe” choice in relation to the other candidates, but he must now convince everyone that he is “presidential”.
It was also pointed out that candidates have in the past matured politically throughout the campaign and that Romney could do the same. He is very coachable and could overcome the shortcomings seen during the primary, becoming a good candidate by the fall.
Also, it is unclear where the female vote stands with regards to Romney. It seems likely that minority females will support Obama, but educated and suburban female support is less clear. Recent polls have shown Romney down 19 points against Obama with female voters, a gap that must be closed for Romney to be competitive. There was also disagreement on what constitutes the “female vote”.
Finally there was talk of a potential third party candidate. It was considered unlikely, but most conceded that if one were to emerge it would likely be Ron Paul and that he wouldn’t be very successful.