We started this week where we left off last week – gay marriage and its effect on the campaign. There are several questions arising from Obama’s announcement to support gay marriage last week. Was he out of his mind? Was it intentional and all pre-planned. Was Biden floating a trial balloon or did he disclose the campaign position prematurely? Particularly puzzling is the rollout of his pro-gay messages since his announcement such as his graduation address at Barnard College linking Seneca Falls, Selma and Stonewall in the battle for civil rights (http://cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-cites-both-selma-and-stonewall-examples-what-young-people-can-do). Apparently he is trying to energize his base and improve his funding situation from the LGBT community. The evolved position is likely to appeal to some independents and young people, but is it an issue that will turn red votes blue or bring blue votes to the polls that would otherwise stay at home? It is almost like he is trying to use gay marriage as a wedge issue forcing Romney to avoid alienating the Log Cabin Republicans while not disappointing Gary Bauer and Rick Santorum who want to use the issue as a weapon.
Another sidelight of the media frenzy last week, is where it places Biden in the Obama campaign. He has been campaigning very hard in recent weeks. Considering his past history with brain aneurysms, will he be able to withstand the brutal schedule? If something happened to him, would there be a constitutional crisis in confirming a replacement via the 25th Amendment with the current environment in Washington? Is Biden’s schedule a confirmation of the administration’s confidence in him or is he auditioning for continuing on the ticket this Fall? If Obama decides that Biden is too much of a liability to continue on the ticket, how would he handle it? The obvious replacement would be Hillary Clinton. Ed Rendell was also mentioned as a possible replacement. Most at the table thought that replacing Biden would be perceived as a desperation move, but he might be that desperate by the convention.
A look at the numerous indicators of a victory in November for either party, it appears to be an election on the edge. Several indicators point to an Obama re-election while others suggest a likely defeat. Developments in the economy between now and the election, major national or international events, candidate performance on the trail or at the debates, and the Supreme Court decisions announced this summer are among the factors could sway the election. Defining Romney is the most critical activity for both campaigns right now. The Republicans were very successful in defining Dukakis in 1988, but unsuccessful in defining Clinton in 1992. Republicans will be defining Romney as a successful businessman, competent manager, a man of faith and a family man. Democrats paint him as severely conservative, someone who likes to fire people and has no concern for the working class. The Bain Capital ads running now in selected markets are reminiscent of the Swift Boat ads. Romney’s likability ratings are improving once his major rivals have suspended their campaigns. Will he be able to improve on these ratings or at least hold on to them as the campaign goes on? Are his improved ratings due to the long-shot effects described by Bartels in Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice (http://press.princeton.edu/titles/4229.html)? Are some of his problems with the press due to his experience as a boss with little or no second-guessing of his decisions?
We also wondered what direction the Tea Party is going. It appears that they will vote against Obama in the general election but that they are funneling resources into Congressional races. Another curious development is the eruption of the debt-ceiling debate. We were not able to see how raising this issue now helps Obama, Boehner, or incumbents in Congress on either side of the aisle. It is a serious issue that needs to be addressed, but there appears to be little will in Congress to really solve it. It also does not seem to be a decisive issue in the election relative to jobs.
Finally we talked about the bullying issue. It is a hot topic in suburbia with the recent movie release, and the story about Romney in high school may have some resonance. Democrats are saying that once a bully always a bully, while Republicans are asking to give them a break when compared to cocaine use and commie friends.
No comments:
Post a Comment