Before getting down to the campaign Paul outlined the plan for the rest of the campaign. We will meet this semester at 11AM on Wednesdays in the current room until further notice. Paul will be leaving for his orientation next Wednesday. He and Josh will work on setting up a videoconference to connect us with them at Davidson. We may set up this meeting at the Miller Learning Center. Stay tuned to this site for further details. Josh will be at both party conventions and will report back to us.
Two interpretations for the recent poll data were advanced. One perspective was that the polls have been remarkably stable. There will be major changes in the polls coming out of the conventions. Typically, the first convention (this year the Republicans) gets a bigger bounce than the second convention. Also, typically the Republicans get a bigger bounce than the Democrats. This year look for a 6-8% bounce for the Republicans after their convention and a 3-5% bounce the other way after the Democratic convention. The decay from these bounces tends to be slow with about 33-50% of the bounce carries through to the election. The main effect of the conventions is to bring the weak partisans back to the party reminding them why they associated with their preferred party. The true swing voters are not as persuaded by the partisan nature of the conventions. There are more undecided voters out there than the current polls suggest. The alternate perspective advanced is that there has been a small, but consistent, trend toward Obama and away from Romney in the last two weeks coinciding with the latter’s trip to London, Jerusalem and Warsaw. This perspective claims that Obama’s ads in the swing states in May and June has defined Romney with the negative ads linking him to Bain Capital and the 1%. Thus, Romney’s strategy to go negative on Obama is not working because Americans have made up their mind about Obama but not about Romney. This perspective is consistent with pundits who suggest that there is a very small percentage of the population is truly undecided. The next four weeks may provide a critical test of these two interpretations. Major changes in the polls after each convention will provide strong support for the first interpretation. Little or no change in the polls during the next few weeks will provide support for the second interpretation.
Many things could happen between now and November that could affect the outcome. Possible factors beyond the conventions are the debates, a foreign event, a major change in the economy, and more pressure to release of tax returns. We don’t think Congress can make that much difference at this point, although the looming fiscal cliff probably helps Romney and the Republicans more than Obama and the Democrats. It has been surprising that Obama has not run against the Do-Nothing Congress more than he has, but introducing the topic now, probably would hurt his campaign more than help it. At the convention Romney must be able to introduce himself to the American public or he could end up like John Kerry. A questions was raised about Romney holding on to his base. Polls indicate that 95% of the Republicans are inclined to vote for their candidate while about 87% of Democrats are inclined to vote for Obama. Biden is looking weaker and may not be able to fulfill the typical role of a VP candidate as attack dog. We generally agreed that there may be better VP candidates for the Democrats at this point, but any change now would be interpreted as an act of desperation. Ed Rendell was suggested as a possibility if a change were to be made.
It looks like the Republican VP candidate will be introduced soon, probably associated with the VA/NC/FL/OH bus trip to start this weekend. Three of the potential candidates come from these swing states. Rubio was the flavor of the week last week, but pundits seem to be swinging to Ryan. Those in our group willing to speculate still think it will be Portman. Important factors in selecting a VP candidate include personal chemistry with the top of the ticket, qualifications to step in as President if necessary, and electoral considerations. The value of a VP candidate is considered to be a bump of 2% in his/her own state. It is also the first major decision that is visible for the nominee.
Some other issues that were discussed included the voter-ID battles in PA/FL/TX/OH. We expect a ruling in PA soon, but no ruling is likely to affect the vote count in November. Both sides are lawyering up for potential post-election battles based on the cases of FL in 2000 and OH in 2004.Hopefully the dialogue this fall will go beyond Romney Hood and Obamaloney. Obama has used executive orders effectively this year to score political points, but it may be too late in the campaign to use them with effect now. Look for Obama to pull an August surprise the morning after Romney’s convention speech to make up for the Palin announcement the morning after Obama’s speech in Denver in 2008. The next three weeks will be critical for both campaigns. It looks like PA is not currently considered to be a swing state as both campaigns are pulling out their ad dollars. It is surprising how few swing states are left at this stage of the election.
No comments:
Post a Comment