UGA Campaign Discussion Group – September 12, 2012

We began our discussion on the convention bounces. With respect to head-to-head Real Clear Politics averages, the Republicans received a 0.9% bounce from their convention and the Democrats a 3.1% bounce. Rachel was too modest to claim credit for her very accurate prediction of the bounce last week. The best speech at the DNC was probably the one by Bill Clinton, 40% of which was not in his prepared remarks. Obama was probably a victim of high expectations.  

Romney’s appearance on Meet the Press was not auspicious. When he is vague on specifics he gets hammered. When he is specific, like being for all the positive aspects of ObamaCare but wants to repeal the bad parts, he gets hammered worse and has to issue clarifications. Despite the criticisms that he is not specific enough, his best strategy may be best to stick with broad generalities. While Mitt was getting softball questions from David Gregory, his running mate was being aggressively questioned by Nora O’Donnell. Paul Ryan’s lack of specificity is even more apparent than Romney’s, which is strange for someone who has a reputation for openness and candor. Some of us thought Ryan is just not as smart as his reputation, while others think he is being muzzled by the Romney team. It was noted that Paul Ryan has never even run a statewide campaign and may be somewhat out of his element. Apparently he is putting money into his Congressional campaign as his district might not be as safe as previously assumed. We wondered why Romney’s campaign do not seem to be heeding public advice from Rupert Murdoch and Karl Rove.

Unrest in Libya and Egypt was the next main topic with particular emphasis on Romney’s criticism of Obama’s handling of the situation. Generally it is not a good idea to criticize a President during a foreign crisis. Instead of backing off in the morning press conference, Romney double-downed on his criticism. One viewpoint is that his no-apology approach is the only way he has to burst the Obama foreign-policy bubble. Others felt that this position was a major gaffe for the Romney campaign. We all agreed that he was a victim of poor timing and that he is not facile with policy statements. We also think that his foreign policy is held captive by the neocons.

The situation is also colored by the situation in Israel. Danny Danon, Deputy Speaker of the Israeli Knesset, indicated on Morning Joe this morning that they were ready to bomb Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu is upset with Obama’s apparent snub of him during the UN addresses. Netanyahu is getting dangerously close to inserting himself into the Presidential campaign because of his former association with Romney. We mentioned the role that the Hasidic Jews play in the politics and military aspects of Israeli life.

Discussion shifted to the broader picture in the Middle East and raised many questions. Is this merely a single incident that will be gone in a week or two or is it the beginning of something that outlasts the American election? What effect will the Middle East have on the Presidential election? Are we dealing with radical Islamists in these countries or are they more moderate? Was the movie the real reason for the uprising or was it just an excuse?  In this discussion it was noted that one word was not mentioned – Russia.

We have three weeks until the first debate.