UGA Campaign Discussion Group – October 17, 2012

We started out discussing the debate last night. It was generally agreed that Obama won the debate, but that the edge from the two debates goes to Mitt Romney. Obama reached out to women and Hispanics in the debate, an Romney may have hurt himself in both demographics. Obama came out much more aggressive while Romney was more muted than in their performance in their first debate. Romney’s worst moment should have been his best in which he tried to score a knockout on the Libya question and came up short. He had a substantive point to make, but he got hung up on the “act of terror” wording rather than the awkward handling of the embassy attack by the Obama administration. Romney also muffed the gun question, declaring that assault weapons are illegal even though they are not, but he seems to be getting a pass on this statement. We expect the third debate to be a wash between the two candidates.

Talk then shifted to the VP debate. Some of us called it a draw while others thought that Biden had a poor performance. It would appear that both candidates heartened the base, and that Biden may have stopped the Democratic-ticket slide. Ryan was credible as a debater. His best statement may have been when he said that he and Romney would take responsibility for their actions and not try to blame their mistakes on anyone else. The statement is a little ironic as Romney surrogates have blamed Martha Raddatz and Candy Crowley for being unfair at the two most recent debates.

It appears that the campaign is shifting primarily to the battleground states in the Midwest – particularly OH and IA, as evidenced by where the candidates and the money are going. This movement suggests a stronger Romney campaign than if they were fighting in NC and VA. In looking at the numbers we have been following since the Ryan selection, 50 Electoral College votes (WI-10, PA-20, NH-4 & MI-16) have moved from Leans Obama to Toss Up as designated by RealClearPolitics. They have also moved MO-10 from Toss Up to Leans Romney. Romney also picked up 2.9% (now BHO 50.8 & WMR 49.7) in favorability rating to Obama and 3.5% (now BHO 45.8 & WMR 44.3)less unfavorable. Intrade has a 64.1 to 36.4 edge for Obama up from 62.5 to 37.5 last week. The job approval number for Obama has stayed remarkably constant since the Charlotte convention, ranging from 49.2 to 49.9 over the six weeks.

The answer to last week’s trivia question was Rob Portman. He served as a stand-in for Al Gore to help prepare Bush in 2000 as well as for Lieberman in 2000 and Edwards in 2004 to prep Cheney. He also served as the stand-in for Barack Obama for McCain in 2008 and 2012. This week’s debate trivia question goes back to 1992 and the VP debate negotiations. Dan Quayle wanted to bring in a copy of Al Gore’s book, Earth in the Balance, as a prop. The Gore team consented as long as they could bring in their prop. After hearing what the Gore prop was, the Quayle team withdrew their request. What was the Gore prop?