4/8/11 Meeting

As the semester winds down a CDG "core constituency" has been bravely keeping the conversation going. Without any declared Republican candidacies to focus on, the group has continued to discuss potential candidates, how they would match up against Obama, and how their individual presence in the race will affect the other potential candidates. The 4/1/11 meeting opened with a discussion of Romney, who is widely considered to be undeclared in name only. Because of his 2008 run, Romney enjoys name recognition, which is the main driver behind his 1st place ranking in most polls. But it is uncertain how Tea Party Republicans would view Romney, who is widely seen as a more moderate Republican. If the economy is still the central issue, Tea Partiers may more readily look beyond his support of the ObamaCare-like health insurance mandate he supported and implemented in Massachusetts when he was the governor there. But Romney also faces issues with Republican social conservatives because he is a Mormon. Would the specter of a 2nd Obama term be enough to unite the traditional Republican base and the Tea Party behind a candidate that most experts believe would be a viable candidate in the general election, or will the recent movement towards ideological purism drive the nomination battle?

The meeting on Friday opened up with some brief comments about economic voting inspired by a handout from group member Del on unemployment rates and one and two-term presidents. The handout also included a summary of poll results from 5 polls including Gallup and Pew. This led to a discussion of Donald Trumps strong second place showing in NH that made headlines last week and how this is likely being driven by Trump's name recognition from his considerable celebrity. The author volunteered that Trump's recent surge in support might be driven by his shameless pandering to the "birther movement" leading the group to offer various opinions as the whether his conviction that "the evidence is still out" is sincere or not. He is, after all, sending investigators to Hawaii.

The conversation then turned to the 1996 nomination battle between Lamar Alexander and Bob Dole that may (or may not) have turned out differently if the process had taken longer (inspired by an article passed on to the group by Paul). This led to more talk about the invisible primary and the role that name recognition plays in the pre-primary polls. Jaeyun reminded the group that at this point in the 2008 Republican primary, Guilani was leading most of the polls and the little known governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee was polling in Iowa at about 1%. He then went on to win the state. This led to more talk about Michele Bachmann and her relatively strong showing of 5% (average).

The meeting wrapped up with a conversation about the (then) impending midnight deadline for a budget deal and how a shutdown would affect both Obama and the Republicans. Del offered that this is a defining moment of the Obama Presidency and that the President would need to demonstrate Clintonesque qualities in order to come out ahead in public opinion. The group was mixed as to who, Obama or the Republicans had the tougher line to walk here-but nearly all agreed that there would be a political price to pay should a deal not be struck. And that’s what you missed!