7-27 Meeting with Special Guest Josh Putnam

This week’s meeting featured a special presentation on the primary schedule by Josh Putnam, creator and author of the FrontloadingHQ blog and former UGA alum. Josh’s talk focused on the current structure of the primary schedule, which is still being defined. Josh is an expert on frontloading by the states (states moving their presidential primaries earlier and earlier in order to gain influence over the presidential nomination) and started the meeting by highlighting this cycle’s curious trend of some states moving their primaries backward rather than forward on the calendar. According to Josh, states are doing this due to a number of factors ranging from cost-cutting efforts to frustration that their earlier contests failed to reach the level of influence anticipated when the move forward was enacted. The 2008 cycle saw 24 states hosting their primary contests on Super Tuesday. So far the 2012 cycle has only 10 states participating in Super Tuesday, a more than 50% reduction.

Despite this broader trend, there are several “rogue” states that appear to be still jockeying to move their contests up, including AZ, MO, WI, MI, CO, FL, and GA. When these states decide to hold their contests will ultimately determine when we will see the IA, NH, NV, and SCs contests held. While far from finalized, if each state listed above indeed decides on their optimal date, we could see the Iowa and NH hosting their contests in middle of December, although this scenario is unlikely. It’s interesting to speculate the affects this might have on participation in these contests, particularly in the Iowa Caucuses, which are time consuming to participate in. Would this decrease the number of caucus goers as many will be too busy preparing for the holidays, or otherwise unwilling or unable to take part in the state’s famed presidential politics during a month traditionally reserved for family and holiday cheer? Or would it allow people normally locked out of the caucus process due to its high commitment structure to participate? Regardless, the idea of the Iowa caucuses and combative presidential politics during a month normally devoted to spiked eggnog and college football bowl games definitely has a Grinch-like feel.

The crux of Josh’s presentation is that the presidential primary schedule is still in flux and is likely to remain so to some degree even past the party’s deadline of October 1^st. Please visit Josh’s site, frontloading.blogspot.com for more in-depth analysis on these topics and to stay apprised of developments on the calendar.

The meeting then turned to a discussion on how various schedules might affect candidate strategies with Josh and several group members opining that any elongated contest is likely to benefit front runner and money leader Mitt Romney. Particularly in the Republican Party contests, the first 2 contests have traditionally winnowed the field to a few candidates and the presumptive nominee emerging at the conclusion of the Super Tuesday races. But as mentioned several times in earlier posts on this blog, this year’s candidate field and ideological divisions in the Republican Party between Establishment Republicans and Tea Party Republicans looks likely to produce different winners in IA and NH, perhaps again in NV and SC, and there could be two viable candidates still competing for the nomination after Super Tuesday. This would result in the unorthodox situation of the late February and March contests being determinative. There is no doubt that state party leaders in the remaining “rogue” states are considering this possibility as they contemplate moving their primaries up. It was the general opinion of the group that Romney is currently the only candidate positioned to have the funds and organization needed to wage multi-state battles into March. However, the winnowing of the field would likely help the Tea Party’s preferred candidate by streamlining donations that are currently being dispersed amongst several candidates and may allow a candidate like Michele Bachmann to continue to effectively compete.

Hope to see you at next week’s meeting on Wednesday, August 3^rd at 3:00 in room 302 of Baldwin Hall, which will be the last meeting of the group’s summer session. The day and time of the fall meetings will be determined soon so please be sure to let Paul know your availability for the fall as it becomes known.

7/20/11 Meeting

The meeting opened with the announcement that Josh Putnam, creator and blogger of Frontloading Headquarters (FHQ) will be attending next week’s meeting. Josh is a nationally renowned expert on the presidential primary schedule and may grace the group with a short presentation on this cycle’s changes to the primary schedule. Whether or not Josh gives a formal presentation, this will be a great meeting to attend as Josh’s insights on the “rule of the game” and on the Republican nomination will no doubt be instructive and informative. Details regarding his visit will be released as soon as possible.

The meeting opened with a discussion of whether Perry’s Tea Party credentials and support have thus far been overstated both in the media and within our group discussions. An Associated Press article published on the morning of the meeting discusses how Tea Party groups from Texas and early primary state New Hampshire “are collaborating to criticize Perry’s record on immigration, public health and spending, and his former affiliation with the Democratic Party” in the hopes of derailing his potential bid for the Republican Party nomination. Tea Party members behind the effort are quoted as saying that his record as Governor Texas does not match Perry’s conservative rhetoric and accuse him of being too moderate and a former Tea Party challenger to Perry in his last reelection bid accused the governor of talking like a Tea Party candidate but not governing like one. The article reveals that Perry’s Tea Party support may not be strong enough for him to siphon off Bachmann supporters should he enter the race and contradicts some members (including the author’s) contentions that Perry may be the double threat candidate the GOP field sorely needs.

The discussion again turned to why Perry is waiting to throw his hat into the ring. No other information has been released regarding Americans for Perry efforts to cajole the governor to enter the race or whether Perry has been successful in his efforts to be added to the Ames Straw Poll ballot despite missing the deadline in June. Some in the group opine that Perry will hold off on any announcement until after the debt ceiling deadline of August 2^nd in order to avoid having to address the issue. Many Tea Party supporters as well as Tea Party congressional members do not support raising the debt ceiling under any circumstance. This could put Perry into an untenable situation where he is forced to take a position that may alienate the Tea Party, further complicating the issues raised above.

Additionally, the latest generic poll results were discussed which show that Obama is slightly down in the generic poll (a Republican candidate) but beats each of the Republican candidates when they are listed individually by name. The discussion then turned to the Ames Straw Poll. The group feels that anything below 3^rd place for Pawlenty would likely result in his pulling out of the contest and that anyone finishing below Gringrich will likewise be forced to withdraw. As of today, the race for a first place finish between Romney and Bachmann is heated, with Bachmann showing a slight edge in the latest poll released last week.

Finally the meeting closed with a discussion of the attention being lavished on Mark Bachmann’s clinical psychology practice, which offers controversial gay-straight conversion counseling, a practice which is not approved or endorsed by the APA. The discussion was focused on whether or not it has the potential to turn into a mainstream problem or if it will be relegated to the blogosphere and late night comedy. Regardless, the controversy is a result of Bachmann’s newly minted front-runner status in Iowa, which is the catalyst between Pawlenty’s attack on Bachmann’s record in congress and migraine-gate. Both of these issues are sure to be discussed this Wednesday-hope to see you there! (Wed. at 3:30 in room 302 Baldwin Hall)

7/13/11 Meeting

The meeting kicked off with a lively discussion of the latest Republican presidential primary polls and was buffered by the best meeting attendance since we were graced with James Campbell’s visit in March. In the latest poll of likely Iowa caucus voters by The Iowa Republican, Michele Bachmann surpassed Romney and is now officially the front-runner with 25% to Romney’s 21%. However, Romney maintains his front-runner status in the latest Quinnipiac national poll, with 25% to Bachmann’s 13%. When Sarah Palin is included in the poll, Bachmann beats her by 2% and the other unofficial candidate, Rick Perry comes in at 10%.

Rick Perry’s relatively strong showing (for an unannounced candidate) led to another discussion of the possibility of his entering the race. The fact that Perry has not made any real movements toward hiring staff leads several group members to conclude that he is not seriously considering running. This led to a discussion of the Ames Straw Poll, which will be held in August. As Perry missed the deadline to participate in the poll, his name will not appear on the ballot and he will not be setting up a booth. This leads several in the group to conclude that he will not throw his hat into the ring. If he is planning on running, skipping Ames is a curious decision for a candidate expected to do well in Iowa.

The group also discussed the 2^nd quarter fundraising numbers, which were released on Tuesday. President Obama demonstrated his continued fundraising prowess, raising $86 million in the 1^st and 2^nd quarters of 2012. His 2^nd quarter total of $47 million for his own reelection campaign far exceeds the $35 million dollars that his potential Republican opponents raised combined. Additionally, the report claims that 98% of the donations came from contributions under $250 and that 260,000 new donors contributed.

As expected, Romney led the pack reporting $18 million. The other “establishment” candidates, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, reported $4.5 million and $4.1 million respectively. However it is not clear how much of Huntsman’s campaign donations were self-financed. The other candidates’ reports ranged from Santorum’s weak showing of $582,000, to Bachmann’s respectable $3.5 million raised from 88,000 donors. Clearly, Romney is best positioned in the money race heading into the 3^rd quarter, which will see several debates including a debate in Iowa and one hosted by Senator Jim Demint. However, it is likely that all of the candidates are wearily eyeing the President’s impressive totals. Although not mentioned in the meeting, Rudy Giuliani stated that he is still considering entering the race and is making 3 appearances in New Hampshire this weekend. He says that he is analyzing the field and will make a decision by the end of the summer. As for whether these latest statements will be enough to see his name re-added to the polls remains to be seen.

The remainder of the meeting focused on the debt ceiling debacle and the hesitation of the Republican presidential candidates to offer positions and/or statements on the debate. Although Bachmann stated unequivocally on her Meet the Press interview that she would not vote to raise the debt ceiling, the other candidates have been mostly silent on the issue. The fact that Romney is the front-runner and is likely approaching his candidacy with a “do no harm” mentality was offered as a reason that he has not weighed in. Some in the group thought his refusal to comment and take a principled stand on the issue may hurt him with the very part of the party he most needs to court.

Although we have resisted the urge for the past couple of weeks, the group entered into a lively debate about the debt ceiling and the competing positions of the Republican and Democrats. Like in Washington, no agreement was reached.

Hope to see you there next week! (Wednesday, July 20^th at 3:00pm in room 302 Baldwin Hall).

7/6/11

The meeting opened up pretty much where it left off last week: discussing a potential Rick Perry run and the implications his presence in the race might have on the other candidates, particularly Michele Bachmann. One group member brought up Perry's uncanny resemblance to George W., which he claims goes far beyond the fact that both are socially conservative Republican governors from Texas. Based on a Perry interview, he opined that Rick Perry bares such a striking physical and vocal resemblance to Bush that potential voters will be hard pressed not to associate the two. He pointed out that the Obama camp's strategy of casting McCain as a Bush prototype in the 2008 election was successful despite the considerable ideological and policy differences between Bush and McCain. With Perry, the Obama campaign may have a far easier time convincing voters that a vote for Perry is a vote for a 3rd Bush term.

Another group member countered that this would not necessarily be a bad thing for Perry in the primary, as Bush supporters remained steadfast in their approval of the President even while his approval ratings tanked with every other demographic group. This led to a discussion about a Perry campaign strategy: would he run as Bush the President or Bush the candidate? Bush the candidate ran formidable campaigns in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the controversy surrounding the closeness of the 2000 election, the fact remains that Bush out-campaigned Al Gore, who had the advantages of incumbency in an Administration that had overseen and economy on fire and had turned a 4 trillion dollar deficit into a surplus. In fact, most forecasting models predicted a resounding Gore victory. Should Perry display the same campaign savvy as Bush, he may appeal to strategic Establishment Republicans who have thus far been supporting Romney, albeit halfheartedly. Perry would more than satisfy the Republican base and would safeguard against any Tea Party insurgency that a Romney nomination may trigger. Thus, some in the group consider him to be a formidable contender should he run.

But, some in the group question whether Perry has the political acumen in order to run a base-pleasing primary campaign that remains capable of transitioning into a moderate general election platform. One member stated that she had recently watched footage of Perry in an interview where he seemed to be moderating his message and laying groundwork for distinguishing his policy positions from Bush. This is as good of a sign as any regarding whether or not he is planning on entering the race, as no announcement regarding plans to make any type of announcement have yet emerged from Perry.

One factor that Perry is likely considering as he contemplates entering the race is a recent poll in Texas that indicates Perry is not well-regarded in the Long Horn state, which is consistent with comments from one group member who opined that Perry may not be as formidable a candidate as some in the group (including the author of this blog) anticipate.The poll (which can be found at http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/11242/ppp-polls-texas-lukewarm-on-perry-bid) finds that Obama is beating Perry by 2% points (47/45) in Texas (although 8% are undecided). This is not what one would expect to see, even in a hypothetical contest in solidly Red Texas-which no longer has a single statewide office filled by a Democrat and went solidly for McCain in 2008. The same poll also finds that 59% of Texans think that Perry should not run.

Finally, the question of whether or not Perry has truly taken steps to set up a campaign apparatus remains unanswered. Despite reports in June that Perry hired some of Gingrich's former staff in Georgia after their exodus from his campaign, there has been no other reporting regarding Perry hiring staffers. However, Americans for Rick Perry, a group that is trying to convince Perry to run, has hired Gringrich’s Iowa campaign director Craig Schoenfeld. Despite rumors that Perry would announce in June or early July, no announcement has be made leading some in the group to speculate that Perry will announce the week of the Iowa Straw Poll (37 days from today) in order to go into the Poll with momentum (assuming he announces at all).

So, that's what you missed at this week's meeting. Hope to see you next Wednesday at 3:00 in room 302 of Baldwin Hall.

6/28/11 Meeting

The meeting opened up with a discussion of Michele Bachmann's somewhat surprisingly strong showing in a recent poll of likely Iowa caucus participants, which has her in a statistical tie with establishment candidate and front-runner Mitt Romney. Some in the group opined that Bachmann might peak too early in the contest while others thought that she will hold steady, at least in Iowa. Of course, this could be contingent on Palin and Rick Perry, current governor of Texas not running. A poll was taken of the CDG group asking participants to indicate whether or not Palin will run. The majority of the group feels that Palin will not enter the race and instead choose to play the role of "kingmaker." We also discussed the issue that despite sharing a fair amount of issue positions and Tea Party support, Bachmann and Palin are mostly lumped together by the media because they are women. Regardless of the fairness of this, most of the group agrees that the race cannot support two female contenders and that Palin's lack of announcement has allowed Bachmann to fill the role quite successfully. In short, if Palin intended to run before, she may now be less likely because of Bachmann's strength in Iowa right now. Her hesitation may have proved to be her undoing. Additionally, Bachmann enjoys the highest favorably ratings of the entire GOP field, a fact that Palin, whose own approval ratings are quite low, is likely considering as she weighs her decision.

The discussion then turned to whether Rick Perry will enter the race. Some in the group think a Perry entrance will be problematic for Bachmann as he will capture some of her Tea Party support as well as for Romney because Perry, like Romney, has substantial executive experience as a 3-term governor of Texas and strong economic credentials. In short, Perry may be able to do what no one in the current GOP field has done: bridge the gap between Establishment Republicans and Tea Party Republicans. Others feel that Perry won't pass the "scratch and sniff" test with Establishment Republicans, moderate Republicans, and Independents because of his history of using inflammatory rhetoric including veiled threats of a Texas succession. In short, several in the group agree that Bachmann may be poised to win Iowa if Palin and Perry stay out of the race.

The group also discussed the possible outcomes of the first three primaries (Iowa, NH, SC) and the distinct possibility that no one candidate in the current field looks good to take all 3 races. Will it be a Bachmann win in Iowa, followed by a Romney win in New Hampshire? If so, and the GOP field is whittled down to 3 (say Bachmann, Romney, and Huntsman) what will South Carolina voters do? The newest addition to our group, Allison, opined that South Carolina GOP voters might strategically abandon their tendency to vote for a strong, outspoken social conservative in order to best reach the broader Republican goal of making Obama a one-term President. However, these same voters are some of the most likely Republican voters to take umbrage with Romney’s record as governor of Massachusetts such as RomneyCare and his previous pro-choice position on abortion. Because of the likelihood that two separate candidates will take Iowa, NH, and SC, most of the group believes its likely that the race will come down to Super Tuesday, which offers a relatively balanced mix of GOP strongholds and Blue States, as well as the swing state of Missouri. Who might emerge with the majority of delegates from the Super Tuesday states will no doubt become a focal point of discussion as the primary season progresses and the candidate field solidifies.

Interestingly, the group was polled about what may happen should Romney win the nomination. The question polled was, “If Romney wins the nomination, will the Tea Party mount a 3^rd Party candidacy for the general election?” A strong majority of the group voted yes, based on numerous factors such as the Tea Party’s efforts to run ideologically appropriate candidates against GOP Establishment candidates in the 2010 midterms. A discussion of the fact that identity politics, long the nemesis of the Democrats, seems to be plaguing the Republicans ensued but was cut short as we ran out of time. This, and a discussion of Time Magazine’s 2012 Presidential Primary Bracketology (and it’s similarity to the group’s ideological graph of the candidates) are on the agenda for next week. Hope to see you there! (3:00pm Wednesday, July 6th room 302 Baldwin Hall).