UGA Presidential Discussion Group – June 20, 2012

UGA Presidential Discussion Group – June 20, 2012

There were only two of us present today, making it a dialogue rather than a discussion. The issue of the week was immigration. Obama’s political announcement last week has put Romney in a bind between the Tea Party that wants an anti-immigration policy and the swing voters who like the Obama position. This move seems to be part of a broader strategy for the Obama campaign to distract Romney from focusing on jobs and the economy. Romney had to disrupt his bus tour to address the new immigration policy. We expect a series of social issues paraded out by the Obama campaign such as birth control and student loans to keep the Romney campaign distracted.

We talked a little about the VP selection process. It does not bode well for Rubio, when the top of the ticket has to announce that even though they don’t discuss the process but rumors of Rubio not being vetted are false. We keep waiting for the Supreme Court rulings. It is difficult to tease out the political implications. The issue of the day was the committee vote charging Eric Holder for contempt of Congress and Obama’s response citing executive privilege. It seems that invoking executive privilege is not politically advantageous for the President unless this move is another one to distract the Republicans. There are many situations that could confront Obama that would be beyond his control including Middle East powder kegs of Egypt, Syria and Iran as well as the European money crises. If Obama continues respond quickly and decisively, he probably gains popularity and if not, Romney will benefit. To be successful, the Democrats must get better at messaging.

Barack Obama: The Story by David Maraniss is sure to stir up controversy. Maraniss suggests that much of what Obama wrote in Dreams of My Father was exaggerated or untrue. Republicans are citing the book as another example of Obama’s lies, while Maraniss stated that it takes literal license to reveal a deeper side of the man. We think that it will probably energize the bases but have little effect on the election. We also discussed superPAC money, the effect of reapportionment on the House elections, the debates, voter suppression in Florida, and when, if ever Georgia will become a swing state. Little came out of this series of topics that had not been covered in previous sessions.

Paul will be out again next week. Del Dunn will be back next week and willing to dialogue or discuss the election at the regular time. There will be no discussion on Wednesday, July4, but we will resume our discussions on July 11.