6/28/11 Meeting

The meeting opened up with a discussion of Michele Bachmann's somewhat surprisingly strong showing in a recent poll of likely Iowa caucus participants, which has her in a statistical tie with establishment candidate and front-runner Mitt Romney. Some in the group opined that Bachmann might peak too early in the contest while others thought that she will hold steady, at least in Iowa. Of course, this could be contingent on Palin and Rick Perry, current governor of Texas not running. A poll was taken of the CDG group asking participants to indicate whether or not Palin will run. The majority of the group feels that Palin will not enter the race and instead choose to play the role of "kingmaker." We also discussed the issue that despite sharing a fair amount of issue positions and Tea Party support, Bachmann and Palin are mostly lumped together by the media because they are women. Regardless of the fairness of this, most of the group agrees that the race cannot support two female contenders and that Palin's lack of announcement has allowed Bachmann to fill the role quite successfully. In short, if Palin intended to run before, she may now be less likely because of Bachmann's strength in Iowa right now. Her hesitation may have proved to be her undoing. Additionally, Bachmann enjoys the highest favorably ratings of the entire GOP field, a fact that Palin, whose own approval ratings are quite low, is likely considering as she weighs her decision.

The discussion then turned to whether Rick Perry will enter the race. Some in the group think a Perry entrance will be problematic for Bachmann as he will capture some of her Tea Party support as well as for Romney because Perry, like Romney, has substantial executive experience as a 3-term governor of Texas and strong economic credentials. In short, Perry may be able to do what no one in the current GOP field has done: bridge the gap between Establishment Republicans and Tea Party Republicans. Others feel that Perry won't pass the "scratch and sniff" test with Establishment Republicans, moderate Republicans, and Independents because of his history of using inflammatory rhetoric including veiled threats of a Texas succession. In short, several in the group agree that Bachmann may be poised to win Iowa if Palin and Perry stay out of the race.

The group also discussed the possible outcomes of the first three primaries (Iowa, NH, SC) and the distinct possibility that no one candidate in the current field looks good to take all 3 races. Will it be a Bachmann win in Iowa, followed by a Romney win in New Hampshire? If so, and the GOP field is whittled down to 3 (say Bachmann, Romney, and Huntsman) what will South Carolina voters do? The newest addition to our group, Allison, opined that South Carolina GOP voters might strategically abandon their tendency to vote for a strong, outspoken social conservative in order to best reach the broader Republican goal of making Obama a one-term President. However, these same voters are some of the most likely Republican voters to take umbrage with Romney’s record as governor of Massachusetts such as RomneyCare and his previous pro-choice position on abortion. Because of the likelihood that two separate candidates will take Iowa, NH, and SC, most of the group believes its likely that the race will come down to Super Tuesday, which offers a relatively balanced mix of GOP strongholds and Blue States, as well as the swing state of Missouri. Who might emerge with the majority of delegates from the Super Tuesday states will no doubt become a focal point of discussion as the primary season progresses and the candidate field solidifies.

Interestingly, the group was polled about what may happen should Romney win the nomination. The question polled was, “If Romney wins the nomination, will the Tea Party mount a 3^rd Party candidacy for the general election?” A strong majority of the group voted yes, based on numerous factors such as the Tea Party’s efforts to run ideologically appropriate candidates against GOP Establishment candidates in the 2010 midterms. A discussion of the fact that identity politics, long the nemesis of the Democrats, seems to be plaguing the Republicans ensued but was cut short as we ran out of time. This, and a discussion of Time Magazine’s 2012 Presidential Primary Bracketology (and it’s similarity to the group’s ideological graph of the candidates) are on the agenda for next week. Hope to see you there! (3:00pm Wednesday, July 6th room 302 Baldwin Hall).

James Cambell Visit: 2/25/11 Meeting

The discussion group was fortunate to have James Campbell, coauthor of The American Campaign and one of the nation's most experienced presidential election forecasters, stop by and share some insights on the 2012 cycle. Dr. Campbell was visiting UGA to give a talk on his current research, "The Economic Records of the Presidents: Party Differences and Inherited Economic Conditions” which reanalyzes (and in his words, debunks) Larry Bartels' highly acclaimed book, Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age.

When asked to predict whether any of the candidates widely considered to be likely contenders for the Republican nomination (Romney, Huckabee, Barber, Gingrich, Palin, Bachmann, Paul, Huntsman, and now Romer) Campbell predicted an Obama victory but cautioned that changes in the electoral environment, particularly in Obama's approval ratings, are likely between now and 2012. Campbell said that every President who had a 45% approval rating or higher in the final months before the election has won reelection-so that approval rating is something to watch closely as the campaign season progresses.

Campbell also spent some of the meeting discussing the performance of forecasting models in the 2008 election. On average, the forecasting models for '08 were fairly accurate, especially considering that the forecasts are made months before the election (how many months varies with each forecaster) and do not account for campaign effects such as debates performances, gaffes, and of course in the case of 2008, an economic meltdown the likes of which had not been seen in this country since the Great Depression. For those of you unfamiliar with presidential forecasting models, it's important to point out that because of a very small N size (for 2012 models it will be N=17) forecasting models are constructed to be as parsimonious (simple) as possible. Thus, campaign events like those described above, as well as factors such as fundraising are not taken into account in the predictions.

Campbell also discussed why his model incorrectly predicted a 4% margin of victory for McCain. He argued that despite gaffes such as McCain’s ill-fated trip to Washington and temporary campaign suspension, the true reason McCain’s numbers dropped so precipitously in the last two months of the election was because his approval was tied to President Bush’s, whose own approval ratings plummeted from the low 40s to the mid-20s as he lost support from his base because of the economic crises. Thus, despite being an open seat contest focused on the Iraq War initially, 2008 became a classic retrospective election where the party in power was held responsible for poor economic performance.