The meeting kicked off with a lively discussion of the latest Republican presidential primary polls and was buffered by the best meeting attendance since we were graced with James Campbell’s visit in March. In the latest poll of likely Iowa caucus voters by The Iowa Republican, Michele Bachmann surpassed Romney and is now officially the front-runner with 25% to Romney’s 21%. However, Romney maintains his front-runner status in the latest Quinnipiac national poll, with 25% to Bachmann’s 13%. When Sarah Palin is included in the poll, Bachmann beats her by 2% and the other unofficial candidate, Rick Perry comes in at 10%.
Rick Perry’s relatively strong showing (for an unannounced candidate) led to another discussion of the possibility of his entering the race. The fact that Perry has not made any real movements toward hiring staff leads several group members to conclude that he is not seriously considering running. This led to a discussion of the Ames Straw Poll, which will be held in August. As Perry missed the deadline to participate in the poll, his name will not appear on the ballot and he will not be setting up a booth. This leads several in the group to conclude that he will not throw his hat into the ring. If he is planning on running, skipping Ames is a curious decision for a candidate expected to do well in Iowa.
The group also discussed the 2nd quarter fundraising numbers, which were released on Tuesday. President Obama demonstrated his continued fundraising prowess, raising $86 million in the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2012. His 2nd quarter total of $47 million for his own reelection campaign far exceeds the $35 million dollars that his potential Republican opponents raised combined. Additionally, the report claims that 98% of the donations came from contributions under $250 and that 260,000 new donors contributed.
As expected, Romney led the pack reporting $18 million. The other “establishment” candidates, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, reported $4.5 million and $4.1 million respectively. However it is not clear how much of Huntsman’s campaign donations were self-financed. The other candidates’ reports ranged from Santorum’s weak showing of $582,000, to Bachmann’s respectable $3.5 million raised from 88,000 donors. Clearly, Romney is best positioned in the money race heading into the 3rd quarter, which will see several debates including a debate in Iowa and one hosted by Senator Jim Demint. However, it is likely that all of the candidates are wearily eyeing the President’s impressive totals. Although not mentioned in the meeting, Rudy Giuliani stated that he is still considering entering the race and is making 3 appearances in New Hampshire this weekend. He says that he is analyzing the field and will make a decision by the end of the summer. As for whether these latest statements will be enough to see his name re-added to the polls remains to be seen.
The remainder of the meeting focused on the debt ceiling debacle and the hesitation of the Republican presidential candidates to offer positions and/or statements on the debate. Although Bachmann stated unequivocally on her Meet the Press interview that she would not vote to raise the debt ceiling, the other candidates have been mostly silent on the issue. The fact that Romney is the front-runner and is likely approaching his candidacy with a “do no harm” mentality was offered as a reason that he has not weighed in. Some in the group thought his refusal to comment and take a principled stand on the issue may hurt him with the very part of the party he most needs to court.
Although we have resisted the urge for the past couple of weeks, the group entered into a lively debate about the debt ceiling and the competing positions of the Republican and Democrats. Like in Washington, no agreement was reached.
Hope to see you there next week! (Wednesday, July 20th at 3:00pm in room 302 Baldwin Hall).
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