7/6/11

The meeting opened up pretty much where it left off last week: discussing a potential Rick Perry run and the implications his presence in the race might have on the other candidates, particularly Michele Bachmann. One group member brought up Perry's uncanny resemblance to George W., which he claims goes far beyond the fact that both are socially conservative Republican governors from Texas. Based on a Perry interview, he opined that Rick Perry bares such a striking physical and vocal resemblance to Bush that potential voters will be hard pressed not to associate the two. He pointed out that the Obama camp's strategy of casting McCain as a Bush prototype in the 2008 election was successful despite the considerable ideological and policy differences between Bush and McCain. With Perry, the Obama campaign may have a far easier time convincing voters that a vote for Perry is a vote for a 3rd Bush term.

Another group member countered that this would not necessarily be a bad thing for Perry in the primary, as Bush supporters remained steadfast in their approval of the President even while his approval ratings tanked with every other demographic group. This led to a discussion about a Perry campaign strategy: would he run as Bush the President or Bush the candidate? Bush the candidate ran formidable campaigns in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the controversy surrounding the closeness of the 2000 election, the fact remains that Bush out-campaigned Al Gore, who had the advantages of incumbency in an Administration that had overseen and economy on fire and had turned a 4 trillion dollar deficit into a surplus. In fact, most forecasting models predicted a resounding Gore victory. Should Perry display the same campaign savvy as Bush, he may appeal to strategic Establishment Republicans who have thus far been supporting Romney, albeit halfheartedly. Perry would more than satisfy the Republican base and would safeguard against any Tea Party insurgency that a Romney nomination may trigger. Thus, some in the group consider him to be a formidable contender should he run.

But, some in the group question whether Perry has the political acumen in order to run a base-pleasing primary campaign that remains capable of transitioning into a moderate general election platform. One member stated that she had recently watched footage of Perry in an interview where he seemed to be moderating his message and laying groundwork for distinguishing his policy positions from Bush. This is as good of a sign as any regarding whether or not he is planning on entering the race, as no announcement regarding plans to make any type of announcement have yet emerged from Perry.

One factor that Perry is likely considering as he contemplates entering the race is a recent poll in Texas that indicates Perry is not well-regarded in the Long Horn state, which is consistent with comments from one group member who opined that Perry may not be as formidable a candidate as some in the group (including the author of this blog) anticipate.The poll (which can be found at http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/11242/ppp-polls-texas-lukewarm-on-perry-bid) finds that Obama is beating Perry by 2% points (47/45) in Texas (although 8% are undecided). This is not what one would expect to see, even in a hypothetical contest in solidly Red Texas-which no longer has a single statewide office filled by a Democrat and went solidly for McCain in 2008. The same poll also finds that 59% of Texans think that Perry should not run.

Finally, the question of whether or not Perry has truly taken steps to set up a campaign apparatus remains unanswered. Despite reports in June that Perry hired some of Gingrich's former staff in Georgia after their exodus from his campaign, there has been no other reporting regarding Perry hiring staffers. However, Americans for Rick Perry, a group that is trying to convince Perry to run, has hired Gringrich’s Iowa campaign director Craig Schoenfeld. Despite rumors that Perry would announce in June or early July, no announcement has be made leading some in the group to speculate that Perry will announce the week of the Iowa Straw Poll (37 days from today) in order to go into the Poll with momentum (assuming he announces at all).

So, that's what you missed at this week's meeting. Hope to see you next Wednesday at 3:00 in room 302 of Baldwin Hall.